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Jul 4, 2019, 12:35 pm
#76
cmhua777
Join Date: May 2002
Location: US
Programs: UA GS 2MM
Posts: 1,758
I am a GS and I can tell you that I dont see a lot of flights with PN that dont also have PZ. When I fly domestic the only way I can clear an RPU is by forcing it with the 72-hour window (space permitting) or SDC if a seat opens up close to departure.
My gripe with how UA handles domestic upgrades is that its simply a mark-up based on flight distance. So someone who buys a $99 ticket LAX-IAH can upgrade to P for $150 (approximately). Then I buy a B fare, day before travel, for $599 and can also pay to upgrade (because the complimentary PN/PZ are almost always 0) for that same $99 offer. The markup on low fares should be much much higher. Similar to the upgrade copays with miles. Buy K pay a big copay. Buy M pay a small one.
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Jul 4, 2019, 12:41 pm
#77
WineCountryUA
Moderator: United Airlines
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA LT Plat 2MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 67,498
Originally Posted by bocastephen
There are an ample number of cheap Kettle upgrade examples in the TOD thread going back many years, including specific examples of an Elite member being offered an upgrade at a cost significantly higher than a non-elite travel companion, and that's not including the sub-$100 upgrade offers hawked at the DEN gates.
How about something in the past two years?
The $10 is nonsense
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Jul 4, 2019, 12:47 pm
#78
onthesam
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Chicago IL US
Programs: UA 1K; National Executive Elite; Hertz PC & Hotels Galore
Posts: 949
Originally Posted by cmhua777
I am a GS and I can tell you that I don’t see a lot of flights with PN that don’t also have PZ. When I fly domestic the only way I can clear an RPU is by forcing it with the 72-hour window (space permitting) or SDC if a seat opens up close to departure.
My gripe with how UA handles domestic upgrades is that it’s simply a mark-up based on flight distance. So someone who buys a $99 ticket LAX-IAH can upgrade to P for $150 (approximately). Then I buy a B fare, day before travel, for $599 and can also pay to upgrade (because the complimentary PN/PZ are almost always 0) for that same $99 offer. The markup on low fares should be much much higher. Similar to the upgrade copays with miles. Buy K pay a big copay. Buy M pay a small one.
I don't think the typical consumer when considering a TOD offer would give the all-in cost of travel (original ticket + upgrade) much weight at all. Rather, its the value proposition of is a seat up front for $x worth it. That $99, or $599, has already been spent.
If UA started offering the $99 ticket guy $600 TOD offers, they'd be wasting their time. Conversely, they might want to offer the $599 ticket guy a $600 TOD 
. Bottom line: they charge what they think you'll pay (without much regard to original fare except as an indicator of how much you can afford in the first place).
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Jul 4, 2019, 12:48 pm
#79
halls120
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 58,621
Originally Posted by bocastephen
At least Larry K at Continental communicated a goal that each elite tier should expect to be upgraded a minimum of "x%" of the time (I forget the actual targets from back then) even with better fares and buy-ups, but at United, Kirby is perfectly happy with everyone from GS to Silver never getting a free upgrade provided that F seat is sold for any amount of money from $10 on up.
Part of the reason I am no longer a 1K is that I realized I'd be better off taking reasonable OLCI offers than hoping for an elite upgrade.
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Jul 4, 2019, 3:05 pm
#80
bocastephen
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: LAX/TPE
Programs: United 1K, JAL Sapphire, SPG Lifetime Platinum, National Executive Elite, Hertz PC, Avis PC
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Originally Posted by onthesam
I don't think the typical consumer when considering a TOD offer would give the all-in cost of travel (original ticket + upgrade) much weight at all. Rather, its the value proposition of is a seat up front for $x worth it. That $99, or $599, has already been spent.
If UA started offering the $99 ticket guy $600 TOD offers, they'd be wasting their time. Conversely, they might want to offer the $599 ticket guy a $600 TOD . Bottom line: they charge what they think you'll pay (without much regard to original fare except as an indicator of how much you can afford in the first place).
I've encountered some of these Kettles with their sub-$100 upgrades, and they are not dumb - I've heard them talking about how they traded their checked bag fees in for a first class seat, pre-boarding, free meal and free alcohol. United is the dumb one here - all they are doing is shifting one block of ancillary income into another block, often losing money in the process, and leaving elite customers furious in the process - but of course, that's the "Baldanza Way" - take pleasure and humor in the discomfort of others while shooting yourself in the foot.
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Jul 4, 2019, 3:10 pm
#81
Kacee
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
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Originally Posted by cmhua777
I am a GS and I can tell you that I dont see a lot of flights with PN that dont also have PZ.
That may be your feeling, but it is objectively not accurate.
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Jul 4, 2019, 5:17 pm
#82
spartacusmcfly
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2018
Programs: UA LT GS | UA LT Club | Marriott LT Titanium
Posts: 1,250
Originally Posted by cmhua777
I am a GS and I can tell you that I dont see a lot of flights with PN that dont also have PZ.
Agreed. That's why I started this thread. PN7/PZ0 split seemed odd. SFO-BOS flight is 50 days out, still 1 of 28 J seats taken and PN7/PZ0. I've been looking at R/PZ for years and don't recall many examples of such a lopsided allocation. I think we give UA too much credit in this area. I don't think their algorithm is some highly-optimized thing of beauty. I actually think it's fairly crude with a healthy dose of randomness thrown in.
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Jul 4, 2019, 5:20 pm
#83
milypan
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: SFO
Programs: BART Platinum, AA Plat Pro
Posts: 1,158
Originally Posted by bocastephen
I've encountered some of these Kettles with their sub-$100 upgrades, and they are not dumb - I've heard them talking about how they traded their checked bag fees in for a first class seat, pre-boarding, free meal and free alcohol. United is the dumb one here - all they are doing is shifting one block of ancillary income into another block, often losing money in the process
In fairness, its only human to try to justify your decision ex post. Would these kettles actually have checked a couple bags, bought up to Group 1 (2?), ordered a meal on board, and purchased several drinks? Color me highly skeptical. This sounds more like a story you tell yourself afterwards to justify treating yourself. UA may not be as dumb as they seem here.
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Jul 4, 2019, 6:17 pm
#84
StuckinITH
Join Date: Nov 2012
Programs: BA Bronze, United 1K, HH Gold, SPG Platinum, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 3,477
Originally Posted by cmhua777
I am a GS and I can tell you that I dont see a lot of flights with PN that dont also have PZ.
I am a 1K and I can tell you that I see many flights with PN that don't have PZ. However, sometimes, even under those conditions I do get upgraded without ever seeing PZ opening. If I check after my upgrade I just see that the PN number decreased and PZ is still 0.
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Jul 4, 2019, 6:49 pm
#85
bocastephen
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
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Location: LAX/TPE
Programs: United 1K, JAL Sapphire, SPG Lifetime Platinum, National Executive Elite, Hertz PC, Avis PC
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Originally Posted by milypan
In fairness, its only human to try to justify your decision ex post. Would these kettles actually have checked a couple bags, bought up to Group 1 (2?), ordered a meal on board, and purchased several drinks? Color me highly skeptical. This sounds more like a story you tell yourself afterwards to justify treating yourself. UA may not be as dumb as they seem here.
Even if they checked two bags, and I highly doubt the ones I've overheard were "justifying their decision ex post", they were very aware of the value in the upgrade vs the checked bag fee and felt they broke even on cost. The only winner here was the Kettle, certainly not UA's elite frequent fliers, and certainly not UA.
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Jul 5, 2019, 9:58 am
#86
bluedemon211
Join Date: Mar 2014
Programs: Mileage Plus Global Services 2MM
Posts: 1,211
Originally Posted by bocastephen
Even if they checked two bags, and I highly doubt the ones I've overheard were "justifying their decision ex post", they were very aware of the value in the upgrade vs the checked bag fee and felt they broke even on cost. The only winner here was the Kettle, certainly not UA's elite frequent fliers, and certainly not UA.
I've always wondered if this might be impacted with the way UA internally measures revenue targets. They make $'s hand over fist via bag charges. However, every $ they gain via buy ups, falls into a different revenue category. Yes, it all goes into the same pocket, but if UA (and certain VP's) are rewarded/compensated for maximizing $'s generated for tickets, that might explain a bit of the willingness to "trade" bag revenue for flight revenue. "Tell me how you will measure me and I will tell you how I will behave".
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Jul 5, 2019, 12:34 pm
#87
findark
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
Programs: DL PM, UA Gold, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 14,704
Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
How about something in the past two years?
The $10 is nonsense
Especially on the specific route in question (SFO-IAD). The standing offer was $249 a year or two back, and I had zero issues getting it to print whenever I wanted as a 1K (and managed a couple of double-upgrades from Economy to 3-class A by exploiting it), and now seems to be $309 or $310, which just happens to also be the route fare differential.
Originally Posted by cmhua777
My gripe with how UA handles domestic upgrades is that its simply a mark-up based on flight distance. So someone who buys a $99 ticket LAX-IAH can upgrade to P for $150 (approximately). Then I buy a B fare, day before travel, for $599 and can also pay to upgrade (because the complimentary PN/PZ are almost always 0) for that same $99 offer. The markup on low fares should be much much higher. Similar to the upgrade copays with miles. Buy K pay a big copay. Buy M pay a small one.
UA has made a different business decision, and honestly it makes sense. Unlike in the past, they are actually interested in charging a market-competitive rate for the forward cabin. When inventory is light and they need to compete to fill seats, they will offer lower F fares, just like the Y fares are lower. They will get more money selling a $249 P fare and your $599 B fare, than if they sell you the same $599 B fare, give you F for free, and collect the $99 K fare or more realistically lose that pax entirely to DL or another carrier offering a more competitive price for the forward cabin. At the end of the day, it feels like the bigger gripe is that it's not "fair" you have to pay so much for the same Economy ticket.
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Jul 5, 2019, 2:48 pm
#88
mr8
Join Date: Jul 2016
Programs: UA1K | *A Gold
Posts: 767
Originally Posted by StuckinITH
I am a 1K and I can tell you that I see many flights with PN that don't have PZ. However, sometimes, even under those conditions I do get upgraded without ever seeing PZ opening. If I check after my upgrade I just see that the PN number decreased and PZ is still 0.
I've seen this happen a couple of times as well where the upgrade will go through right after purchase or applying the GPU/RPU even though the site says waitlist only. PN bug?
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Jul 5, 2019, 2:55 pm
#89
WineCountryUA
Moderator: United Airlines
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA LT Plat 2MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 67,498
Originally Posted by mr8
Originally Posted by StuckinITH
I am a 1K and I can tell you that I see many flights with PN that don't have PZ. However, sometimes, even under those conditions I do get upgraded without ever seeing PZ opening. If I check after my upgrade I just see that the PN number decreased and PZ is still 0.
I've seen this happen a couple of times as well where the upgrade will go through right after purchase or applying the GPU/RPU even though the site says waitlist only. PN bug?
This "quiet" clearing without visible inventory was true in the past before PN was used for GS. There may be system triggers that occur to a human when there are certain upgrade requests or a periodic human review of waitlists for certain conditions.
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Jul 5, 2019, 3:03 pm
#90
jsloan
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,963
Originally Posted by VegasGambler
I'd say that no PQD on partner-ticketed flights, plus the fact that they won't ticket most flights on non-JV partners, is really the worst.
DL was originally PQD on DL-ticketed flights only; they dropped that requirement, but UA hasnt. If you follow the Premium Fare Deals forum, you can see why if I were willing to do a MQD run, I could make the $15K for Diamond for less than $5000.
As for ticketing most flights on non-JV partners, frequently (not always) thats due to the partner issuing a plating restriction the prevents it.
Originally Posted by cmhua777
The markup on low fares should be much much higher. Similar to the upgrade copays with miles.
When capacity is high, the markup is about the same as the route differential. What difference does it make to you if somebody bought F for $250 or bought Y for $100 and paid a $150 buy-up later? The only time its really a better deal to buy and then wait for an upgrade vs. just purchasing F up front is when youre on an extremely low fare that UA doesnt include in the differential fare table.
Originally Posted by spartacusmcfly
SFO-BOS flight is 50 days out, still 1 of 28 J seats taken and PN7/PZ0. I've been looking at R/PZ for years and don't recall many examples of such a lopsided allocation.
Im surprised PN is 7.
This year is worse, but Ive seen this consistently since I first became a 1K three years ago.
UA will sell those seats, and they have elected not to hold any back as a giveaway to 1K and Platinum members. I dont like it, but I understand it.
Originally Posted by findark
At the end of the day, it feels like the bigger gripe is that it's not "fair" you have to pay so much for the same Economy ticket.
I agree. I think thats pretty much what it boils down to.
Originally Posted by mr8
I've seen this happen a couple of times as well where the upgrade will go through right after purchase or applying the GPU/RPU even though the site says waitlist only. PN bug?
I suspect that UA has added some code to allow some high premier members to clear into an unpublished bucket. It may be their way to try to get 1K clearance rates higher without opening PZ space to the world.
While Im not a fan of waitlisting GPUs, I would point out that UA allows a 24-hour cancellation, so if you were inclined to give this a try on routes where its been known to happen (e.g., SFO-HKG), you could always cancel it if it didnt work out.
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